Could an Independent Texas Thrive?

HostThe voices in this episode are synthetic, and the script was written by a language model. The positions are real, and they come from the thread.

HostCould an independent Texas thrive as its own country, or would its unique politics and economic structure make it a global pariah? That's the question that sparked a lively debate over on Reddit, in the changemyview subreddit, drawing in 79 comments.

HostThe original poster's view was strongly challenged, with many commenters weighing in on the practicalities of secession. The discussion quickly split into several camps: those who believe Texas's social policies would isolate it, those who argue economic pragmatism always wins out, and others who think the biggest hurdle wouldn't be Texas itself, but the United States' reaction.

Economic pragmatistI think it's clear that countries trade based on raw material needs and national interest, not local social policy or ideological alignment. Texas has a massive economy, a huge GDP, and it's a major oil producer and refiner.

Pariah predictorBut you're underestimating the impact of Texas's regressive social politics. Its unconditional support for Israel, for example, would alienate many Middle Eastern countries, leading them to refuse trade and diplomatic relations. Western European countries and Canada wouldn't want to trade either.

Economic pragmatistThat's just not how the world works. Middle Eastern nations already maintain massive trade with the US despite its strong support for Israel; some are even normalizing relations. We ship manufacturing jobs to China despite its human rights record. Europe happily traded oil and gas with Russia even after Crimea.

Pariah predictorTexas is small enough that Saudi Arabia and the UAE would just shrug and say, 'fine, we won't establish relations with you.' It's not the entire United States. Texas's economic and political base is too small to mitigate that kind of damage from international isolation. It'd be as geopolitically isolated as North Korea.

Economic pragmatistSmall? Texas's GDP is comparable to major economies like Russia or Italy, and it's larger than Australia or Canada. If independent, it'd be the eighth largest economy in the world. It'd be the fourth largest oil producer and have the fourth highest refining capacity. That's not small.

Pariah predictorBut if countries refuse to buy its oil due to its unacceptable local policies, those oil revenues would see a sharp drop. Who's going to want to be seen doing business with a pariah state?

Economic pragmatistCountries tend to care a lot less for the internal politics of foreign countries than you're giving them credit for, especially when there's money to be made or resources to be had. If Iran, a state sponsor of terror, can find countries to buy its oil, Texas certainly could.

HostSo, the argument is that economic self-interest would always trump social policy. But what about the elephant in the room: the United States itself? One perspective suggests that the biggest obstacle wouldn't be Texas's internal policies, but the reaction from its former country.

Us is the obstacleExactly. Secession wouldn't be a peaceful separation; it'd likely be an act of war. The US isn't just going to 'let them go.' The biggest obstacle to trade and diplomatic relations for an independent Texas would be a pissed-off America.

Us is the obstacleThe US would impose an immediate embargo, evacuate military bases, and force corporations to choose allegiance. That would severely damage the new country's economy. The US would use its economic leverage, like with Cuba or Iran, to prevent other foreign powers from establishing ties.

Economic pragmatistEven with a hostile US, if Texas is producing vital resources like oil, wouldn't other nations still find ways to trade? They'd have a strong incentive to do so, regardless of US pressure.

Us is the obstacleThe US dollar is the world's reserve currency, and the US has immense power to impose sanctions. It's not just about wanting to trade; it's about being able to. A new US federal government would likely be disinclined to have close relations with an independent Texas, making things even harder.

HostThe original post also drew a comparison to California, implying it might fare better. But some commenters pushed back on that, arguing California has its own significant vulnerabilities.

California not specialThe comparison is flawed. California is dependent on foreign oil and has reduced its refining capacity, making its energy situation precarious. Companies are leaving California at a remarkable rate, impacting its economic base.

California not specialCalifornia would also lose some of its water rights to the Colorado River, while most Texas river systems are contained entirely within the state. Texas actually has an energy advantage in wind and oil, producing and refining its own energy.

Pariah predictorBut Texas's independent power grid is a significant liability. We've seen its reliability issues. That makes it incredibly vulnerable and reliant on itself during failures, which isn't a good look for an independent nation.

California not specialCalifornia's electricity is among the most expensive and unreliable in the country, too. It accounted for 24 percent of all US power outages in 2022. So, it's not like California is a shining example of energy stability either.

Economic pragmatistAnd Texas's independent power grid, despite its issues, could actually be an advantage for self-sufficiency in an independent state. It means it's not reliant on external grids, which could be a strategic asset.

HostBeyond the main fault lines, some views were less widely held or directly contradicted. For instance, the claim that Texas is a 'mooch state' that takes more federal money than it contributes in taxes was directly countered by others citing recent data showing it's a net contributor.

HostAnd while the idea of a hostile US reaction was a major point, some took an even more absolute stance, arguing that any act of secession would be a declaration of war, making the hypothetical of a state 'thriving' as an independent country irrelevant from the start.

HostUltimately, the thread largely agreed that global trade is primarily driven by economic interest and raw material needs, rather than by a country's internal social or political policies. However, there was deep disagreement on whether Texas's specific policies and its relationship with the United States would override that economic pragmatism.

HostThe biggest unresolved question remains the practical, geopolitical fallout of any actual secession, and whether any state could truly navigate that path to independence peacefully.

HostSloppod out.

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